Executive summary

A step-by-step appraisal method for choosing which recurring offer to launch, with the economics, scenarios and decision materials an investment committee needs.

What is inside

What this asset covers

Inside, members get the complete appraisal method: decision framing rules, longlist and shortlist screening, option-by-option economic modeling against a moving do-minimum counterfactual, cannibalization treatment, optimism corrections tied to evidence grades, scenario and sensitivity design with switching values, a weighted options matrix with behavioral scoring anchors, the full investment case structure, governance and risk controls, a KPI set for tracking the chosen option, a detailed synthetic worked example, and ready-to-use working tools.

  • How to frame the recurring offer decision as a formal options appraisal rather than a single advocacy case
  • What a credible longlist of recurring offer options looks like and how it narrows to a testable shortlist
  • The economics every option must show, including the point at which its case breaks
  • Why the status quo is a moving counterfactual, not a zero line, and how to model it
  • How scenarios and sensitivities turn one optimistic number into a defensible range
  • The investment case structure a committee can interrogate and approve in one sitting
  • A full synthetic worked example and a failure case drawn from a skipped counterfactual